Garden of Eden Project …beans of death alert

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Oil warning light?

With Wall Street closed for Presidents Day, European stocks nevertheless held on to early gains amid expectations of a Greek deal and China’s 50 bp cut to the bank reserve ratio requirement. The FTSE gained 40.18 (0.68%) to close at 5,945.25; while in Europe the DAX and CAC gained 1.46% and 0.96% respectively. Australia also reacted well to the cut in the reserve ratio and had a stronger day with the ASX200 rallying 1.4% to 4256.
Miners led the way in both Australia and Europe overnight as the market now begins to factor in a “better than expected landing” for China as its central bank freed up an estimated $60bn cash of lending in its latest move.
We recently suggested that the greater threat to the global economy is not Greece, but the oil price due to the geopolitical threat from Iran. The last major price move in 2008 saw Brent crude spike to US$145 then fall back to $60 within six months. This time Brent has been well above $100 for over a year, with several signs ominously suggesting higher prices yet.

Things that go bump in the night (and day)

Town centre street closed off and street exacuated on Saturday as house subsides through gas and water mains!

Tenants at St Edmunds Road had the shock of their lives when something went very big bump on Saturday morning, followed by a strong smell of gas and water gushing in to the basement

Rescue services were on the scene within minutes.

Tom Marshall from Greatlets Ltd, their managing agent who was on call this weekend attended to find that the the building had suddenly moved to such an extent that the tenants could not open their front door. They had to be evacuated via their kitchen door and over a fence.

Stephen Parrott director at Greatlets said,
” This is a most uncommon event even in a coal mining area. This could have been doubly lethal as not only did internal walls become unstable and ceilings fall, but the house filled with gas and the basement with water where the electrical consumer unit is. However it is all in a day’s work for us at Greatlets. Tom was the first on the scene and offered the tenants alternative accommodation for the duration of the repairs to this extraordinary event, and undoubtedly a cup of tea at our offices which are close by this location.

We all take for granted the structural integrity and safety of our homes, and usually movement of this kind happens over 10′s of years.

Having previously been a property developer, we are well placed to spot and advise on this sort of matter when it progresses slowly. But here, the tenants were extremely fortunate to have escaped without injury from an event that happen with absolutely no apparent cause, signs or warning”

BBBBBBristish Gas cancelled for 2nd time!!

British Gas have cancelled an urgent call out to a non-working heating system for the 3rd time without re-booking….3 minutes notice…had tenants waiting in and us on standing by.

“More urgent matters”…..so the young children can be left to freeze whilst British Gas tries to organise the call out that was promised for Sunday that was urgently requested on Saturday.

Lack of courtesy on this cancellation call was noted.

Contact invited from BG to resolve this!

Any other stories…and they were so good last time….

The Artist and more

The 2012 BAFTA best film, The Artist, was set around the time of the Great Depression. This may chime with a Greek population that fears it will suffer something similar as it strives to deal with its debt. But another BAFTA nominee, The Help, seems more relevant right now. Greek politicians passed the austerity package required to secure the help it needs to avoid default. And it’s not before time. Talks have been going on since July. There will be a sigh of relief at the agreement, but it’s too early to relax just yet. The austerity measures are tough and are already causing severe social unrest. With elections expected in April, it will take the will of another nominee, The Iron Lady, to achieve the reforms in practice. The risk of a default at some future date remains. But how much more help will be available if that situation arises, is yet to be seen.
UK interest rates stay on hold, but quantitative easing is increased. Even though there was some brighter economic news from business surveys last week, the Monetary Policy Committee didn’t think that this would be enough to keep the economy warm. Chilly economic headwinds, from Europe in particular, were strong enough for it to stoke up the boiler with £50bn more quantitative easing and keep interest rates frozen once again. The action wasn’t a surprise, but the question is, will it be enough? This extra stimulus brings the total size of the asset purchase scheme to £325bn and when the purchases are complete, the Bank’s holdings will account for almost one third of the market in government bonds.
Good news from the UK’s manufacturing sector. Manufacturing production in the UK increased by 1%y/y in December, five times more than was expected. On top of last week’s survey data, policymakers will have regained some confidence in the sector. But things are still fragile. Factory output declined by 0.8% in the last quarter of the year and the overall index of production, which includes mines, utilities and oil and gas, dropped by 1.4% between October and December.
UK trade deficit falls to its lowest level since April 2003. The UK’s deficit on seasonally adjusted trade in goods and services was £1.1bn in December – narrower than the gap of £2.8 billion in November. Goods imports were still bigger than exports, but the deficit on the seasonally adjusted trade in goods fell to £7.1bn in December, from £8.9bn in November. Trade in services deteriorated a bit, but stayed in surplus at an estimated £6bn, compared with £6.1bn in November.
UK mortgage arrears and possessions stay remarkably low. UK mortgage arrears and possessions improved in 2011 compared with 2010. 1.4% of mortgages outstanding were in arrears of more than 2.5% of the outstanding balance, while possessions accounted for 0.3%. Both are at their lowest rate since 2007, before the financial crisis and when the housing market and the economy were much more buoyant. This is remarkable given the rise in unemployment and fall in real incomes. Low interest rates and lower unemployment among the home-owning age groups seem the likely explanations.
European Central Bank left rates unchanged. The ECB kept rates at 1% for the second month in a row and there was no discussion of a rate cut at the meeting. The ECB is in “wait and see” mode, and it’s no wonder given all of the changes going on. Some better economic data in January was tempered by disappointing bank lending figures and signs of a credit crunch in parts of the Eurozone. The next offer of unlimited three year loans to banks becomes available in late February. President Draghi is not alone in hoping that this will boost credit to households and businesses.
The U.S. trade deficit increased to 2008 levels in 2011. The US trade deficit increased to its highest level in six months in December. At $48.8bn it brought the trade gap for 2011 as a whole up to $558bn. This is up 11.6% from $500bn in 2010 and is the biggest deficit since 2008. Exports of goods and services grew 14.5% to a record $2.1 trillion, but imports also broke a record at $2.7 trillion. The fact that the dollar has appreciated by more than 6% since August (in trade weighted terms), will not make it any easier for the US to redress this balance.
China’s inflation rises unexpectedly, but is expected to fall back. China’s CPI increased sharply to 4.5%y/y in January from 4.1%y/y in the previous month, against expectations that prices would continue to moderate. A seasonal spike in food prices due to the Chinese New Year was the reason, and there is little evidence that it was more than this. Non-food inflation fell to 1.8%y/y in January, its lowest reading since October 2010.

After RBS

More cash anyone?

There have been some tentative signs of encouragement coming from the global economy in early 2012. We continue to see firm data in the US, while private sector survey data in the Eurozone and UK have improved. Central banks nevertheless remain firmly on the offensive. The Bank of England has announced a third wave of Quantitative Easing, increasing the size of its Asset Purchase Programme by £50bn in February. The Federal Reserve has delayed its intended monetary tightening by a full 18 months to “at least” late 2014. Finally the European Central Bank is set to continue its aggressive liquidity operations, providing another three year, unlimited allotment loan to the Eurozone banking sector later this month. These actions reflect the grave challenges facing developed economies as they continue to try and plot a course to recovery.

After RBS

Still best to rent?

UK and US house prices are still falling. House prices in the UK fell by 0.2%m/m in January after a similar fall in December, according to Nationwide. But the annual rate is still positive at 0.6%y/y. There’s not much chance of this picking up soon though as mortgage activity is still stagnant. Even though approvals for house purchase reached their highest level in two years, they are still only about half of the long term pre-crisis average. Given the weak economic background this isn’t surprising. But buyers are also hit by higher prices of essential goods and services. All this means that their ability to buy now is worse than in the 2009 recession. In the US there are no signs of recovery either. According to the Case-Shiller 20 City index, US house prices fell by 1.3%m/m in November. This translates to a fall of 3.7%y/y and brings US house prices back to 2003 levels. Prices are not expected to go anywhere soon either. With foreclosures still running at 3.4% compared with an average of 0.5% before 2008, there is still downward pressure on prices.

After RBS

Record broken

Tags

boiler service, boilers, British Gas, property rental

A record we would rather not break just has been.

Despite having a warranty in place and now vertually a new boiler….it still will not work

After 10 call-outs from the previous service provider where the original fault became a different one, British Gas are now on the scene, (3 times so far) and have tried to get the manufacturer’s agent to respond after their 3rd unsuccesful attempt to fix.

The boiler is a Halstead and either the local engineer is on holiday or is so busy with other non-working Halsteads that he cannot respond.

Either way, we have spent 30 man-hours attending to let in engineers….13 times, the last time being January 31st It’s now February 4th with no engineer even responding. British Gas have the policy, (which is admirable) of involving the manufacturer direct if after 3 visits they can not sort the issue….what is not so admirable is the non-response of the manufacturers agent they have tried to contact.

What process could improve this? And yes, it is very cold.

Homeserve…no, its not in the name.

Tags

boiler service, boilers, British Gas, landlord services, property rental

Homeserve, the so called Home Emergency cover company have yet again caused us and our tenants cold and unpleasant days….cant publish all i’d like on this one.

How do they do it….? Training may be the answer…

Dissapointing and down-right un-serve……

The following has been reprinted from the Telegraph

“News that Homeserve has suspended its sales and marketing operations – following allegations of mis-selling and a critical review from auditors Deloitte – will not surprise readers of this column.

I first warned about Homeserve’s mis-selling of household emergency cover back in 2005. Readers told me it had been trying to sell its water-supply-pipe insurance to council tenants – who are not responsible for repairs to their homes, of course”

So even when they call us after we have written to the Chief Exec…they cannot work out which property it is they are calling about nor can they pass our security check…..O dear!

Whereas….British Gas has had its act together on some of our recent boiler emergenies…..except the last one where the boiler has been seen by a company I shall not name….10 visits and the origal fault has become a totally different fault….BG has now involed the manufacture after their 3 visits. We are still waiting 12 weeks after the original fault was reported.

What this space!

Do you have any boiler / plumbing horror stories?

A nice little earner…

Tags

hmo licence, oxford city council

Oxford City Council has started licensing every House in Multiple Occupation as from this week – with the decision proving highly divisive. Landlords who fail to comply could face prosecution and a £20,000 fine.

Licensing costs £470 and upward with an annual renewal fee.

Letting agents and landlords alike have called the selective licensing scheme ‘draconian’ and pernicious, while the Oxford Mail reported claims that landlords would evict ‘hundreds’ of tenants who share properties.

This potential pogrom starts on February 2nd.

Oxford Council now requires every landlord in the city who owns a property where there are three or more unrelated tenants to get an HMO licence. Their aim is to licence around anothr 4,000 properties.

The council, the first local authority in the country to introduce a HMO scheme beyond the mandatory one covering the whole of its area, says the new policy will involve licensing approximately 5,000 properties in total. The scheme was rolled out last year and around 900 homes have been licensed.

The council wants to restrict HMOs to one in five properties on any 100-metre stretch of road.
Stephen Parrott of Greatlets a rapidly growing Northampton based letting specialists has said this will badly hit supply of student properties and also groups of other sharers, including keyworkers such as nurses and teachers. He claims that some landlords will not want to go to the expense and trouble of obtaining a licence, and they will simply choose tenants who form single households.